Thus far, the political alignments in India in the so-called 123 agreement (India-US Nuclear agreement) have been clear.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the Congress party has always seen the Nuclear agreement as strategically beneficial to India (after all, it was Manmohan Singh who negotiated the agreement with President Bush, and Mrs. Sonia Gandhi is obviously now persuaded that Manmohan Singh's analyses is quite correct.) They do so now with greater urgency and vehemence. The political and governing allies of Congress party such as DMK, NCP, RLD and others have also been persuaded that the Nuclear agreement is good for India.
The communist parties objected to the 123 agreement largely on the basis of Hyde Amendment which includes great uncertainty for ever because the President of the United states has to certify every year about India's compliance with respect to clear segregation of military and civilian nuclear programs in India. Here is the catch. Let us, say, India relying on the certitude of the 123 agreement goes on to build dozens of nuclear plants for industrial and domestic power. Let us, again say, some 30 years from now some President of the United States refuses to certify to the U.S. Congress India's compliance with the 123 agreement. What will happen? Nuclear technology and fuel supply to India will come to a grinding halt. What does India do then? That's the questions and the catch.
In any case, may be the communists have not been hopeful but they are at least analytical.
BJP and its allies have, most predictably, opposed the 123 agreement but not necessarily with much force of analyses.
So that has brought the Indian government in a predicament. Without the communists' support, the government could collapse.
Then came the savior in the form of Samajwadi Party with about 39 members of parliament. However, the Samajwadi Party developed cold feet when its political allies like Telugu Desam put political pressure. Then this grouping -- Samajwadi party and Telugu Desam and other parties -- announced that they will seek the expert counsel of former President Abdul Kalam.
Per newspaper reports, Abdul Kalam has affirmed that the nuclear agreement was beneficial for the country. So far, so good. But Kalam also purportedly advised that, “India can scrap nuclear deal anytime if warranted." Okay but what will that do? If 30 years from now, India feels harassed and wants to scrap the deal, where will the nuclear fuel and technology come from?
It does not matter who might abrogate the deal -- India or the U.S. -- the uncertainty and potential catch caused by the Hyde Amendment. It is that simple.
And finally, this -- the communist parties and the Prime Mininster are accusing each other of less-than-honest dialogue and conversation. The latest salvo comes from the Prime Minister, and here is the Prime Minister's chronology of events as reported in the media.
"Singh had concluded in August last year that the CPI(M)’s Prakash Karat was uninterested in the merits of the nuclear deal, that his opposition was ideological and not rational. When the actual nuclear text, the so-called 123 agreement, was being negotiated, Singh had ordered National Security Adviser MK Narayanan and atomic energy czar Anil Kakodkar to ensure all the nine demands regarding the deal raised by Sitaram Yechury in Parliament in 2007 were addressed. When the 123 agreement was finalized in late July last year, Singh called in leaders of both the BJP and the Left and showed them the text. The BJP leaders made no complaints. One of them even praised the Indian negotiators. The Left leaders only said they would study the text. Singh was watching TV several days later, and saw Karat demand the Congress “press the pause button” on the deal. At this point, the PM concluded that the Left would never be won over, though he did make one appeal to the Bengal communists in an interview to a Kolkata daily."
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