Indian policy leaders and citizens have to carefully consider the geopolitics in assessing the India-US Nuclear agreement

As India debates the merits of the India-US Nuclear agreement (123 agreement), public policy leaders and citizens one must consider three the current and potential geopolitics in determining the acceptability of the India-US Nuclear agreement. There are at least three different elements to be considered --

(1) The Larry Pressler Amendment which was in effect in the U.S. with regard to the export/sale of military technology to Pakistan mandated that the President of the United States had to certify to the U.S. Congress that Pakistan was not misusing the military technology. In 1990 the unthinkable happened. Pakistan had paid billion of dollars for the purchase of more than F-16 fighter aircrafts. But the then President George H.W. Bush refused to provide the certification, and Pakistan was denied the F-16 fighter aircrafts though it had paid for them. Pakistan had got those aircrafts in 2005-2006 when President Bush decided to grant India exemption from the sale of nuclear technology and fuel.

(2) We should remember that first nuclear power station -- Tarapur Atomic Power Station -- built in India ran into serious difficulties in the 1960s. The nuclear power station was built with the help of the US and Europe, and with the assurance of continuous nuclear fuel supply. However, because of many domestic and global pressures including the pressure of the Non-proliferation advocates, the United States and France pulled out of the agreement abruptly. India was stranded but thanks to the leadership of the Indian scientists and the political leadership including Mrs. Indira Gandhi, India developed the nuclear and space technology indigenously.

Congratulations to India that in spite of the attempts to impute a variety of motives to India, India never pulled the Tarapur Atomic Power Station out of the IAEA safeguards.

(3) Assuming that the Nuclear agreement is consummated, what will India do if any party -- be it India or the U.S. (because of Hyde Amendment) -- reneges from the agreement in the future? Where will India go for the nuclear fuel and technology? Imagine the scenario twenty-years from now. Assume India has 30 nuclear power plants in different parts of the country and abruptly India loses supply of most of the fuel. That would be disastrous.

The world certainly has changed the 1960s and even from 1990 but it is also likely to change again in 20 years. India should, therefore, consider the geopolitics of the nuclear agreement. dispassionately.