U.S. Presidential preference analyses based on level of education

The 2008 November U.S. Presidential elections may be quite different if Barack Obama is the Democratic party nominee. (We now know that John McCain is the presumptive Republican party nominee.) And here is one reason why.

Traditionally, the proportion of support for the Democratic party presidential candidate rises as the level of education decreases. Conversely, the proportion of support for the Republican party presidential candidate increases as the level of education level increases. This pattern has been robust and significant at least over the last 8-10 presidential elections. (Since level of education and income are highly correlated, the patterns of support for income have been similar to education levels.)

However, Gallup poll has discovered an interesting finding in its recent presidential preference survey data. In its April 10th report, Gallup Organization (based on 6,158 interviews with registered voters between March 31-April 6 with a 1-point error margin) found that both Obama and McCain were preferred by 45% of the electorate.

But among a sample of 1,440 voters (with a 3-point error margin) with a high school education or less, McCain had 46 percent to Obama's 40 percent -- a deviation from the traditional model of support. In comparison, Clinton had 48 percent to McCain's 43 percent among this sample -- consistent with the earlier patterns of support in presidential elections.

Further, among a sample of 1,936 registered voters (with a 2-point error margin) with some college, but no four-year degree, Obama got 46 percent to McCain's 45 percent. (In McCain-Clinton choice, the numbers were 49 percent to 44 percent.) Furthermore, in a sample of 1,388 registered voters (with a 3-point error margin) with a four-year college degree but no postgraduate education, Obama and McCain were tied at 46 percent (as against, 51% for McCain and 41% for Clinton.)

And, finally, among a sample of 1,350 registered voters (3-point margin of error)with some postgraduate education, Obama had 52 percent to McCain's 42 percent (as against, 48% for McCain and 45% for Clinton.)

Gallup's April 10th report is a confirmation of other similar findings in surveys measuring presidential preference. Among voters with no college education, voters prefers Clinton to McCain in Clinton-McCain match up, and McCain to Obama in Obama-McCain match-up. Among voters with some college education, McCain is preferred when matched against Clinton but it is Obama when it is McCain-Obama.

Clearly, thus, the pattern of support is predictable (and consistent with historical data)in a match-up between Clinton and McCain but not so in a match-up between Obama and McCain. So the churning and uncertainty will be greater with Obama's candidacy. Of course, who (Democratic or Republican party presidential candidate)will benefit from the new pattern of support if it persists into November is not clear? How will this translate into competition for electors is not clear? But it looks like that change and uncertainty are certain outcomes in a McCain-Obama match-up.