Pennsylvania Democratic Primary: What might be the outcome?

What might be the outcome of the Pennsylvania Democratic party contest between Senators Clinton and Obama? Here is a look at some data.

Basic demographics (larger percentage of electorate that is older, catholic and without any college-education, and in general similar to Ohio) provides a structural advantage to Senator Clinton. In the democratic primary contests this year, demographics have been substantial explanatory variables.

Apart from the basic structural demographic advantage, there are at least two other significant events that strengthen Clinton's appeal. First, the offensive comments by Obama's pastor Reverend Wright and Obama's own less-than artful articulation of the angst of the small-town American citizens. Second, amplification and illumination of these issues in the debate among the candidates on April 16th.

Based on all the public polling data available, it appears that Clinton is leading Obama about 48-43 with about 10 percent of the electorate remains undecided. (And in almost all the polls Obama has so far earned about 40-44 percent of the support but Clinton has consistently earned in the high 40s and lows 50s.) If the undecideds break 60-40 in favor of Clinton, she could win the primary with about 7-8 points margin. Since, so far in the democratic primaries (in 20 out of 27 contests) the late-deciders have broken in favor of Clinton (the structural and events-driven issues are stacked in favor of Clinton in Pennsylvania), it would be reasonable to assume that Clinton will secure at least 60% of the late-breakers, may be even more.

There has been a down turn in Obama's support (both nationally, see Gallup tracking poll and in Pennsylvania, see Zogby tracking poll) since the debate on April 16th. The debate appears to have crystallized some of the allegations (fairly or unfairly) against Obama.

In sum, Clinton should win the Pennsylvania primary and by at least about 7-8 points. Most likely by about 10-12 points unless Clinton's voters -- Catholics, blue-collar workers and older voters do not turn up at the polls and conversely, Obama's voters -- African-Americans, voters with college education, and very liberal voters turn up in very large numbers. A final point -- the Pennsylvania Democratic party primary is a closed primary i.e. the independents cannot vote in the primary unlike some other state primaries, and one of Obama's strength has been independent voters. However, slice the Pennsylvania pie it just does not compute well for Obama.