Delegate Count -- Democratic Party Presidential Nominating Contest

Here are statistics as they stand today -- April 3rd -- relating to pledged delegates and super delegates in the contest to elect the Democratic Party's presidential nominee.
(Pledged delegates are those elected on behalf a candidate through a primary or a caucus or both as in Texas. Super delegates are those assigned by the Democratic party with a vote -- these are Democratic party elected officials and party activists.)

Current estimates (based on the elections and commitments made thus far) are as follows. For Senator Clinton, the numbers are: Pledged delegates 1252 , Super delegates 251 and the total is 1503. For Senator Obama the corresponding numbers are 1414, 221 and 1635 respectively.

The projected numbers of pledged delegates from the next ten nominating contests are (based on the assumption that Senator Clinton would win 60% of the delegates from Pennsylvania, Kentucky, West Virginia and Puerto Rico, and Senator Obama would North Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota and Montana by about the same margin, and that Indiana would be a near-draw) are 305 and 290.

So at the end of all the nominating contests, the total numbers of delegates would be at about 1925 and 1808 for Senators Obama and Clinton. Of course, all this leaves out Florida and Michigan because nothing is clear at this point.

If 2024 is magic number, then Obama needs another 100 delegates and Clinton needs about 220 delegates from the current pool of about 350 uncommitted super-delegates.

So Obama's path appears clearly more plausible. Based on the last two months rate of commitment of the super delegates, it is more likely that Obama secures the commitment of at least 55 percent of the remaining delegates. If that were the case, that would leave about 75-100 surplus delegates in Obama's corner. At that point, Obama can agree to even seat the Florida and Michigan delegations based on the disputed elections because those states would give only about 50-60 additional delegates to Senator Clinton, and that would not be enough to overturn Obama's majority. That dispute will just melt away. This is a likely scenario.