Inertia, Discontinutiy and Voter Preferences

Social scientists talk about "persistence," "inertia," and "long run equilibrium" in their analyses and descriptions of individual, group social and market phenomena. For example, we find that brands generally revert to their mean i.e. average (sometimes, also called equilibrium) market share levels even after the firms inject some perturbations (such as aggressive advertising and promotion of the brand.) Surely, there are variations -- ups and downs -- created by the perturbations but eventually the level appears to revert to the average measure. Only a very discrete and definitive discontinuity changes this level.

Look at the current Democratic party presidential contest between Senators Clinton and Obama. In a national preference match-up, Senators Clinton and Obama were supported by about (average) 45 percent and 25 percent of the voters respectively in a national preference match-up. These numbers persisted in spite of many events including surprisingly strong fund raising reports by Obama and tentative debate performances by Clinton in October and November. None of those events provided enough discontinuity for voters to change their preference structure.

And then came Senator Obama's convincing victories in Iowa and South Carolina, and close placings in New Hampshire and Nevada in the month of January. Since these results were unexpected events (of course, not to the political class) to the Democratic party voters, the preference structure changed.

Since then Senators Clinton and Obama have both earning about 45 percent of support from the Democratic party supporters in the part contest for nomination, and both have been running about even with Senator John McCain (the presumptive Republican nominee) in the general elections match-up. Obama has been doing slightly better on average but not by much. None of the events -- Bosnia error by Clinton and Wright controversy for Obama -- has yet changed the preference structure.

Look at the perceptions of the three candidates - Clinton, McCain and Obama. As Gallup organization reports that over the course of the presidential campaign (when millions of dollars have been spent) basic perceptions have not changed much. Americans viewed McCain older and likable in January and the same perception dominates now in April. Clinton was perceived as experienced and not trustworthy then and that perception has not changed either. Obama is much better known today than before the campaign got underway, but the dominant perceptions of him (as being young and inexperienced and a fresh face with new ideas) have changed little.

It does not appear that there are likely to be any foreseen event that would shift the voter preferences substantially.

That's why this is such a dogged race in the Democratic party presidential nomination contest.