Evidence of Voter Switching Behavior in Indian Electorate

India is celebrating the establishment of robust and vibrant democracy. The country has begun a month-long voting process for the composition of the 15th term of the Lok Sabha -- Indian parliament. Over 700 million Indians are eligible to vote, and over 300 million voters are likely to be citizens with household income of less than $2 (US dollar) per day. Almost 60 percent of the electorate is expected to express its preference, and the ballots are printed in at least 25 different languages in different parts of the country.

Time and again, Indian electorate has shown resilience and maturity. The aspirations of the Indian citizens has been rising rapidly, and no political party or grouping is able to (and can) keep pace with such rising expectations. Therefore, a natural outcome has been discontent of the Indian electorate with the ruling political grouping.

Over the years, with the certitude of democracy and fundamental rights (particularly, after the refutation of imposition of internal emergency and suspension of habeas corpus in mid-1970s) the Indian electorate has become confident. Mobility caused by rise in income and freedom to relocate has also loosened the casteist and feudal constraints and fears.

So, the Indian electorate with rising hopes and confidence have been changing the ruling political grouping on every occasion that they go to the polls since 1984 i.e. for the last 25 years.

In 1984, the Indian electorate gave an overwhelming to the Congress party led by Rajiv Gandhi (this came at the heels of sad assassination of Mrs. Indira Gandhi). Then in 1989, it was a political grouping (led by V.P. Singh) opposed to Congress party. Subsequently, it was Congress party and its allies in 1991; non-Congress party, non-Bharatiya Janata Party political grouping in 1996; Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies in 1998 and 1999 (those elections came too close to be considered different mandates); and then Congress party and its allies in 2004.

So the empirical generalization suggests that a non-Congress political grouping will secure a mandate. This political grouping may or may not be lead by Bharatiya Janata Party, and it is likely to be as short-lived as the political groupings of 1989 and 1996 (both of which lasted only for about two years).