Clinton or Obama in Kentucky and Oregon Democratic primaries?

It is time for Kentucky and Oregon Democratic party presidential primaries tonight. Who will win those primaries -- Clinton or Obama?

Of course, there are public polls that show Clinton trouncing Obama in Kentucky, and Obama winning the Oregon primary.

But we do not require any public preference measurements, we can make the forecast based on the demographics. Elsewhere in this blog, I have asserted (with credible empirics from the current election cycle) that Obama dominates those primaries and caucuses in states where the percentage of African-American voters is very small (less than 5 percent as in Iowa or Wisconsin) or relatively large (more than 20-25 percent as in Georgia and South Carolina.) Where the African-American voters are present in the middling range -- 5 percent to about 15-20 percent -- Clinton prevails more often than not.

Demographics has been a reliable indicator thus far, and this assertion has been supported credibly. In the contests thus far, Obama has won 12 of the 15 contests in which the African-American population has been less than 5 percent, and 10 of the 11 contests in which the African-American population has been greater than 15 percent. In those 18 states where the African-American population ranges from 4%-16%, Obama has won 8, while Clinton has won 11.

What are the distributions of African-American populations in Kentucky and Oregon? 7.3 percent and 1.6 percent respectively. So Clinton will prevail in Kentucky and Obama in Oregon. We will know tonight.

Note that the hypothesis and model are postulated only for the Democratic party presidential contests between Obama and Clinton, and not for the general elections.